A guess can be one dollar off and still lose. It can also be five dollars off and still win. The difference is not luck, it is the percentage behind the score. Costcodle scores every guess against the real shelf price, and the 5 percent rule decides whether you win, whether the receipt turns yellow, and how much room you actually have. This guide does the arithmetic out loud with prices you will meet on the shelf. The full rules cover the basics; this page is the math.
The win window is 5 percent of the real price
Start with one definition. The game takes the difference between your guess and the real price, divides by the real price, and checks the absolute value. A guess wins when that number is 5 percent or less. That gives you a two-sided window: up to 5 percent high or 5 percent low.
Small prices make the window feel tiny. On a $2.49 item, 5 percent is about 12 cents, so a winning guess runs from roughly $2.37 to $2.61. A $2.99 guess is 50 cents away, which is 20 percent, so it comes back yellow. On a $19.99 item, the window is roughly $18.99 to $20.99. A $24.99 guess is $5 away, which is 25.01 percent, just past the yellow line into red.
Big prices change the psychology. On a $1,299 item, 5 percent is $64.95, so anything from about $1,234 to $1,364 wins.
- $2.49: wins $2.37 to $2.61
- $19.99: wins $18.99 to $20.99
- $1,299: wins $1,234.05 to $1,363.95
Why the game scores percentages, not dollars
A fixed dollar window would break the game at both ends. If every puzzle allowed a flat $1.00 margin, a $2 item would have a 50 percent window and a $2,000 item would have a 0.05 percent window. Percentage keeps the difficulty roughly even across a 99 cent snack and a four-figure appliance.
Percentage also matches how shoppers judge prices. A dollar over on a two dollar item feels wrong. A dollar over on a $300 item is noise. The rule encodes that instinct in both directions.
The practical consequence is that your step size should scale with the price. On a small item, move in dimes and quarters. On a mid-priced item, move in dollars. On a four-figure item, move in tens or hundreds. A $5 step on a $1,299 puzzle burns guesses, and a $100 step on a $4 puzzle never lands. The daily puzzle rewards step size as much as direction.
Yellow means within 25 percent, red means further than that
The win tier is green. Everything else is feedback. A guess within 25 percent of the real price but outside 5 percent shows yellow. A guess more than 25 percent away shows red. The arrow tells you which side of your guess the price is on.
Yellow has a useful shape once you turn it into bounds. If a $20 guess comes back yellow with an up arrow, the price is above $20 and no higher than about $26.67, the point where $20 sits exactly 25 percent below. If the same guess comes back red with an up arrow, the price is above $26.67. Yellow down at $20 gives a floor near $16 and a ceiling of $20.
Red compresses less. It only says the price is more than a quarter away in the arrow direction, which leaves a wide field. Treat red as a signal to rebuild the range, not to nudge. Yellow is the band that narrows the shelf. Browse the past answers to see how quickly a bracket closes.
Bracketing by price tier
Put the window sizes to work. For anything under $5, the window is usually under a dollar wide, so think in cents. Guess to the nearest quarter, then use the arrow to choose between .49, .79, and .99 endings. A 12 cent window means the last two digits matter more than the first.
For $10 to $50 items, the window is 50 cents to $2.50 wide. Two or three disciplined guesses can corner it. Open inside your estimated range, read the color, then place the next guess on the opposite edge of the band. Do not chase a red result in 50 cent steps. That is how a six-guess round disappears in four.
At $100 and above, the window is $5 or more, which sounds generous until you remember the item could plausibly sit in a $200 range. Use round numbers for the first two guesses, then spend the last guesses inside the bracket. At four figures, a $50 step is reasonable and the $65 window needs no cents.
The six-guess strategy guide covers the decision order; the tour of games like Costcodle covers the rest of the daily shelf.
Questions
Frequently asked
Is the 5 percent measured from my guess or the real price?
It is measured against the real price. The game takes the difference between your guess and the actual price, divides by the actual price, and checks whether the absolute value is 5 percent or less. That is why a guess can be further away in dollars on an expensive item and still win. Every percentage here uses the real price as the base.
Why was my $24.99 guess red when the price was $19.99?
Because the miss is a dollar amount and the score is a percentage. Five dollars divided by $19.99 is just over 25 percent, which pushes the guess past the yellow band into red. Reverse the roles and it changes: guessing $19.99 on a $24.99 item is 20 percent off, which is yellow. Divide by the real price, not your guess.
What does a winning guess look like at each price?
At $2.49, anything from $2.37 to $2.61 wins. At $19.99, $18.99 to $20.99. At $1,299, roughly $1,234 to $1,364. The window grows with the price, but so does the range of plausible guesses, so the skill is the same at every tier: narrow the range, then guess near the center. Practice on the <a href="/archive/">archive</a>.
Put it into practice
The daily Costcodle is waiting. Six guesses and a serious test of your grocery radar.